Case intelligence reportCASE-08-04

Virginia large-load tariff and local permission cluster

Virginia documents partial tariff risk allocation and a C21 local legal invalidation with appeal pending.

Executive summary

Read the conclusion before the archive.

  1. Virginia documents partial tariff risk allocation and a C21 local legal invalidation with appeal pending.
  2. The verified path stops at C21 legal invalidation for Digital Gateway; C9 tariff framework; the next transition remains bounded by the public record.
  3. No full ratepayer insulation, final cancellation or operating-capacity claim.

01 · Case brief

Why this mechanism belongs in the portfolio.

Combines state tariff allocation with local planning and judicial veto. The cluster is retained for its evidentiary function, not as a representative sample or ranking.

01

Observed mechanism

Virginia documents partial tariff risk allocation and a C21 local legal invalidation with appeal pending.

02

Unverified transition

Named service agreements; final appellate outcome; renewed approvals; construction/operation

03

Quantitative basis

25 MW eligibility threshold; 14-year obligation; 85% T&D minimum; collateral up to 60% — tariff terms, not capacity

Figures remain attached to their stated unit and state basis.

Decision boundary

The evidence ceiling

Permitted conclusion

Tariff protections and local/judicial permission layers materially alter pathways.

Prohibited stronger claim

No full ratepayer insulation, final cancellation or operating-capacity claim.

Quantitative ceiling
Tariff thresholds and obligations only
Causal ceiling
No statewide causal rate finding

02 · Institutional control

The outcome depends on a distributed permission stack.

No actor, filing or contract is allowed to stand in for the entire conversion chain.

01

Rate class

02

service terms

03

zoning

04

local standards

05

judicial review

Controlling actors

Institutions with decision rights

  • Virginia SCC
  • Dominion
  • Loudoun
  • Prince William
  • Virginia courts

Controlling instruments

Documents and mechanisms

  • GS-5 order/fact sheet
  • zoning actions
  • appellate opinion

03 · Event sequence

The verified path and the point where proof stops.

The sequence records documentary transitions. It does not imply a standard duration, inevitability or linear progression.

  1. 01

    GS-5 approval/future implementation; Phase 2 policy process; Digital Gateway approval

  2. 02

    judicial invalidation

  3. —
    Blocked or unverified next transition

    Named service agreements; final appellate outcome; renewed approvals; construction/operation

04 · Rival tests

Alternative explanations that materially narrow the claim.

A rival “win” does not reverse the record. It defines the strongest inference that survives the contrary evidence.

01

RW-0006 · PARTIAL MATERIAL WIN

Private-risk allocation

Tested against
Assumption that tariff cannot shift project risk
Evidence result
GS-5 imposes long obligation, minimum billing and collateral
Ceiling effect
Mechanism claim strengthened
Prohibited inference
No complete ratepayer insulation
02

RW-0007 · MATERIAL WIN

Local veto/process risk

Tested against
Assumption that zoning approval is durable build permission
Evidence result
Intermediate appellate court invalidated approvals
Ceiling effect
C21 legal state
Prohibited inference
No final cancellation or physical-state claim

Documented adaptation

The mechanism changed; the outcome remains bounded.

ADAPT-0003 · Customer risk security

Separate GS-5 class, 14-year obligation, 85% minimum and collateral

Trigger or constraint
Stranded-cost and underutilization risk
Evidence / implementation
Approved mechanism · FUTURE-EFFECTIVE / IMPLEMENTATION
Observed outcome
Mechanism approved; rate outcome unobserved
Claim ceiling
Partial risk shift only

ADAPT-0004 · Local standards adaptation

Special-exception and updated use-specific standards process

Trigger or constraint
Compatibility, noise, onsite generation and infrastructure concerns
Evidence / implementation
Open policy process · NOT ADOPTED AS PHASE 2 FINAL RULES
Observed outcome
Process underway; project outcomes absent
Claim ceiling
Policy-process evidence only

05 · Claim register and evidence file

Load-bearing claims and the record that resists them.

18 linked claims, 5 primary source references and explicit contrary or negative evidence are retained under stable IDs.

CLM-0026 · implementation

Local land-use, water, and incentive records in Loudoun County, Prince William County, and Hillsboro demonstrate independently observable permission layers that cannot establish grid service or operation by themselves.

Claim ceiling
Source-universe/permission-layer finding only.
Evidence
Tier A · HIGH for source-layer distinction; LOW for unextracted project status
Locator
Named local-government pages and process records

CLM-0085 · legal status

Virginia approved a new GS-5 class for customers meeting a 25 MW threshold, with effectiveness beginning 2027-01-01.

Claim ceiling
Approved future-effective state only; not the current 2026 billing tariff.
Evidence
Tier A-minus · HIGH
Locator
SCC release and fact sheet
Linked sources
SRC-0113SRC-0114

CLM-0086 · contractual state

Virginia’s approved GS-5 safeguards include at least a 14-year service obligation, minimum payment of at least 85% of transmission and distribution costs regardless of usage, and collateral up to 60% of minimum contract charges.

Claim ceiling
Precise customer application and final tariff sheets control; no ex post outcome inferred.
Evidence
Tier A-minus · HIGH
Locator
Fact sheet pp. 1-2
Linked sources
SRC-0114

CLM-0087 · implementation

Virginia ordered further generation and transmission cost-allocation proposals, so GS-5 approval does not close all unresolved allocation questions.

Claim ceiling
Future proceedings may materially modify allocation methods.
Evidence
Tier A-minus · HIGH
Locator
Fact sheet lines 6-9, 64-68
Linked sources
SRC-0114

CLM-0097 · interpretation

Across the six inspected tariff regimes, thresholds, terms, minimum-billing formulas, deposits/collateral, exit obligations and resource rules vary materially; there is no single U.S. large-load tariff template in the inspected public record.

Claim ceiling
Bounded to inspected regimes and cutoff; not an exhaustive census.
Evidence
Tier A · HIGH
Locator
Pass 04 tariff ledger

CLM-0102 · interpretation

Consumer and ratepayer records do not point in one direction: some parties support negotiated safeguards, others challenge their sufficiency, and regulators retain implementation or cost-allocation review.

Claim ceiling
No categorical claim that tariffs fully protect or necessarily harm other customers.
Evidence
Tier A · HIGH
Locator
Orders, docket testimony, appeal registry and agency materials
Show 12 additional linked claim IDs

CLM-0107CLM-0108CLM-0109CLM-0113CLM-0127CLM-0128CLM-0196CLM-0197CLM-0205CLM-0206CLM-0207CLM-0208

Contrary evidence and competing mechanisms

CTR-0005 · Local-benefit case

Data-center projects may provide tax base, infrastructure, and other public benefits that offset some costs.

Evidence result:Local incentive and development records are available in Hillsboro and Virginia, but audited net outcomes are not yet extracted.

Ceiling effect:Benefits and costs must be separately measured; no net-benefit conclusion.

CTR-0009 · Non-power bottlenecks

Land, permits, water, equipment, financing, construction, chips, networking, or customers may bind before electricity.

Evidence result:Local records expose independent land/water/incentive layers; equipment and financial evidence remains a later-pass gap.

Ceiling effect:Do not attribute delay to power without project-specific rival analysis.

CTR-0025 · Private-risk allocation

Ohio appeal contests sufficiency/finality of approved tariff protections.

Evidence result:OCC current filing registry and Supreme Court appeal record remain active.

Ceiling effect:Prevents claim of uncontested finality or proven full protection.

CTR-0026 · Private-risk allocation

Georgia Commission retained jurisdiction and may revise its framework.

Evidence result:Order expressly retains review and modification authority.

Ceiling effect:Prevents immutable/complete-framework claim.

CTR-0027 · Private-risk allocation

Virginia requires future alternative generation/transmission allocation proposals.

Evidence result:SCC fact sheet states future proposals remain required.

Ceiling effect:Prevents claim GS-5 closes all cost-allocation questions.

CTR-0028 · Private-risk allocation

I&M terms resulted from compromise among materially different proposed thresholds and obligations.

Evidence result:Settlement testimony documents utility, consumer and data-center positions.

Ceiling effect:No single design proven optimal.

Public-record gaps

NEG-0007

Question checked:Is there a unified national data-center water/air/zoning permit crosswalk?

UNKNOWN — PUBLIC EVIDENCE NOT LOCATED; records are fragmented.

Implication:Parcel/permit crosswalk required in Pass 05.

NEG-0027

Question checked:Is there one uniform U.S. large-load tariff design?

NO. Thresholds, terms, collateral and cost-allocation mechanisms differ materially.

Implication:Use bounded portfolio comparisons only.

NEG-0028

Question checked:Does an effective/approved tariff prove all stranded costs are recovered?

NO comparable ex post dataset was located.

Implication:Outcome/causal ceiling remains low.

NEG-0030

Question checked:Is Virginia GS-5 effective at the 2026 cutoff?

NO. Effective date is 2027-01-01.

Implication:Preserve future-effective state.

NEG-0036

Question checked:Was a final Digital Gateway appellate disposition located?

NO — further appeals remained pending.

Implication:Retain C21 legal invalidation / appeal-pending state.

Show the complete linked control-ID index
Contrary evidence
CTR-0005CTR-0009CTR-0025CTR-0026CTR-0027CTR-0028CTR-0029CTR-0033CTR-0034CTR-0035CTR-0036CTR-0037CTR-0038CTR-0057CTR-0059CTR-0060CTR-0061CTR-0062CTR-0063CTR-0064CTR-0065
Negative findings
NEG-0007NEG-0027NEG-0028NEG-0030NEG-0036NEG-0043
Reopen controls
OIR-0011OIR-0024OIR-0025OIR-0026OIR-0027OIR-0028OIR-0029OIR-0033OIR-0034OIR-0035OIR-0036OIR-0037OIR-0038OIR-0039OIR-0049OIR-0056OIR-0057

06 · Record maintenance

What would justify reopening this report.

Updates require a documented evidence delta. Passage of time, repetition of an announcement or a portfolio-level disclosure is not enough.

What could change this record

  • OIR-0011 · Selected localities issue new zoning, permit, water, incentive, appeal, or litigation records.

    Required update: Update application/permit/agreement state, conditions, appeal, capacity basis, and project crosswalk.

  • OIR-0024 · Ohio Supreme Court issues a decision, stay, remand or other material action in Case 2025-1458, or PUCO/AEP supersedes Schedule DCT.

    Required update: Inspect controlling judgment/order and effective tariff; record supersession and customer-obligation changes.

  • OIR-0025 · Georgia PSC files, approves, modifies or discloses material large-load contract terms or supersedes Docket 44280 rules.

    Required update: Record contract state, public/redacted fields, exact allocation terms and project state without inference.

  • OIR-0026 · Virginia GS-5 compliance tariff becomes effective or future generation/transmission allocation proceedings materially change terms.

    Required update: Inspect final tariff sheets/effective date and allocation orders; distinguish proposal from effective terms.

  • OIR-0027 · Kentucky Power or EKPC tariffs, special contracts, dedicated-resource approvals or compliance sheets are modified or superseded.

    Required update: Inspect approved tariff/special contract and update exact obligations, states and confidentiality.

  • OIR-0028 · IURC Cause 46097 tariff is superseded or a canonical final-order/effective-tariff copy resolves archival/term gaps.

    Required update: Archive final order/tariff, verify effective sheets and update terms/supersession.

  • OIR-0029 · Comparable ex post cost, default, stranded-cost or rate-impact data become public for an inspected tariff.

    Required update: Add outcome dataset with denominator, counterfactual/rivals and causal ceiling.

  • OIR-0033 · Final appellate disposition or replacement approval changes Digital Gateway legal state.

    Required update: Inspect controlling court/local record and update legal and physical states separately.

Record navigation

These records share claims or sources with this report. The linkage supports navigation, not a causal inference.

Sources — bibliography and exact locators

  1. SRC-0054 — Phase 2 Data Center Standards & Locations

    Loudoun County, Virginia · 2026-01-01 · Tier A

    Locator: Project milestones/status

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  2. SRC-0113 — SCC Rules in Dominion Energy Virginia Biennial Review Case

    Virginia State Corporation Commission · 2025-11-25 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: GS-5 includes customers >=25 MW and becomes effective 2027-01-01

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  3. SRC-0114 — SCC Data Center Initiatives — Facts and Figures

    Virginia State Corporation Commission · 2026-02 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: pp. 1-2: 14-year obligation, 85% T&D minimum, up to 60% collateral, alternative cost-allocation filings

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  4. SRC-0120 — Digital Gateway rezoning appeals opinion

    Court of Appeals of Virginia · 2026-03-31 · Tier A

    Locator: Opinion pp. 4–5 and 52–53; records identified in Pass 05

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  5. SRC-0121 — Virginia appeals list associated with Digital Gateway records

    Virginia appellate courts · 2026-06-02 · Tier A

    Locator: Appeals list p. 1

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE