Home Explainers Interpretation library
Read the record without turning process signals into operating capacity. Four long-form guides isolate the category errors that most often overstate or understate AI-compute infrastructure: collapsing state transitions, crossing registers, assigning the whole chain to one actor and treating a public-record gap as an outcome.
Open the guides Review the evidence method
Reader control
Guides 4
State coverage C0–C20
Evidence registers 4
Prediction layer None Every guide exposes claim ceilings, linked sources, rival evidence, public-record gaps and reopen conditions.
Reading protocol
A common structure for decision-grade interpretation. 01 Start with the executive summary. The conclusion, boundary and risk are visible before the archive detail.
02 Use the diagram as a model. It organizes evidence classes; it does not create missing observations.
03 Inspect rival tests. Contrary evidence determines whether a stronger explanation survives.
04 End with maintenance. Reopen only when a specified evidence delta appears.
Long-form reports
Four recurring analytical problems Each guide is written for both decision readers and record owners, with a navigable argument, evidence file and bibliography.
Primary risk · State inflation
Why every transition requires a different kind of public evidence — and why the chain can stop, branch or reverse.
Decision question What has actually converted?
Report structure Summary · model · ceiling · rivals · evidence · maintenance Primary risk · False equivalence
How load, supply, money and AI-share measures become misleading when collapsed into one total.
Decision question Do these quantities share a denominator?
Report structure Summary · model · ceiling · rivals · evidence · maintenance Primary risk · Single-actor attribution
How companies, governments, utilities, regulators, courts and suppliers control different links.
Decision question Who controls this transition?
Report structure Summary · model · ceiling · rivals · evidence · maintenance Primary risk · Invented downstream bridge
Why operating status does not by itself establish contracted use, measured utilization, revenue or sustained economic capacity.
Decision question What remains publicly observable?
Report structure Summary · model · ceiling · rivals · evidence · maintenance Reading boundary
Reference journalism, not a forecast or advisory product. Explainers synthesize the locked archive and carry claim IDs, source IDs, ceilings, contrary evidence, negative findings and update triggers. They do not rank projects, estimate market totals or predict outcomes.