Interpretation guideGUIDE-01

An announcement is the first record, not the last test.

A plan becomes economically usable compute only after distinct land, approval, service, construction, energization, commissioning, IT, customer-use and economic-output questions are answered. The sequence is modular, can overlap and can reverse.

Executive summary

Read the conclusion before the archive.

  1. Each transition requires evidence suited to that transition; an upstream record cannot substitute for a downstream observation.
  2. The service-model fork at C7–C10 changes the relevant actors, documents and capacity meaning.
  3. C20 requires sustained evidence connecting operation, customer use and economic output at a bounded scope.

01 · Core argument

The evidence changes function as the project changes state.

A public announcement establishes intent. It does not establish site control, lawful permission, grid service, physical delivery, operating compute or economic use.

Every later label must be supported independently and scoped to the named project, phase, cohort or disclosure.

02 · Conversion chain

Five evidence regimes, twenty-one controlled transitions.

The path can branch, pause, contract, reverse or terminate. The state model records evidence, not inevitability.

  1. C0–C6

    Intent, site and permission

    Announcements, site control and local approvals establish progressively firmer intent and lawful pathway. They do not establish service or construction.

  2. C7–C10

    Power pathway and service-model fork

    Requests, studies, tariff pathways and executed obligations have different legal and technical meanings. Contractual permission remains distinct from delivered electricity.

  3. C11–C14

    Physical delivery

    Funded upgrades, construction, equipment delivery and energization require separate records. A campus total may remain announced while only a bounded phase advances.

  4. C15–C17

    Compute operation

    Commissioning, IT installation and cluster operation narrow the gap, but public operating MW and comparable utilization can remain unknown.

  5. C18–C20

    Observed economic use

    Contracted use, measured utilization or revenue and sustained economic capacity require downstream observations that are least standardized publicly.

Signature model · C7–C10

One state vocabulary, five non-transferable service pathways

Each row requires its own authority, instrument, scope and evidence. A state or capacity measure cannot be borrowed from another row.

  1. R

    Retail large-load service

    Utility · state commission

    1. C7

      Service request

    2. C8

      Accepted utility review

    3. C9

      Tariff or service class

    4. C10

      Executed service obligation

  2. T

    Transmission service

    Transmission provider · RTO/ISO · FERC

    1. C7

      Transmission request

    2. C8

      Accepted system study

    3. C9

      Transmission tariff path

    4. C10

      Executed service obligation

  3. G

    Generator interconnection

    Interconnecting utility · RTO/ISO

    1. C7

      Interconnection request

    2. C8

      Accepted study stage

    3. C9

      Interconnection tariff path

    4. C10

      Executed agreement or obligation

  4. C

    Co-location

    Facility owner · utility · relevant regulator

    1. C7

      Arrangement request

    2. C8

      Technical or regulatory review

    3. C9

      Applicable co-location path

    4. C10

      Executed facility-specific obligation

  5. B

    Behind the meter

    Site owner · utility · local/state authority

    1. C7

      On-site arrangement request

    2. C8

      Engineering or compliance review

    3. C9

      Ownership and service path

    4. C10

      Executed on-site obligations

Reading rule: C7–C10 records process evidence, not inevitable progression. Exact procedures vary by jurisdiction and service model; C10 still does not establish physical delivery or operating load.

Signature model · C17–C20

The evidence boundary becomes less observable after operation

The gradient represents public-record visibility, not the existence or absence of private activity.

  1. C17Threshold observation

    Operating infrastructure

    A bounded operating statement or equivalent observation.

    Boundary: Does not establish customer use, utilization or project economics.

  2. C18Commercial bridge

    Contracted use

    A scoped arrangement linking operating capacity to customer use.

    Boundary: Contract scope, customer identity or capacity denominator may remain private.

  3. C19Measured downstream use

    Utilization or revenue

    A comparable measure with denominator, period and project scope.

    Boundary: Portfolio or company-wide metrics may not isolate the named project.

  4. C20Durable operating-economic bridge

    Sustained economic capacity

    Evidence connecting sustained operation, use and economic output.

    Boundary: Public project-level evidence is often absent or non-comparable.

Unknown is not zero. Missing public C18–C20 evidence is recorded as a scoped gap, not as proof of full utilization, failure or stranded capacity.

Reopen rule: advance only when a new source supplies the missing scoped contract, denominator, period, utilization observation or operating-economic bridge.

Decision boundary

The strongest conclusion must stop at the last supported transition.

Permitted conclusion

A record may be described at the highest state established for its bounded scope, with the controlling source, unit basis and cutoff retained.

Prohibited stronger claim

Do not translate an announcement, request, forecast, tariff, contract or portfolio disclosure into delivered, operating or economically utilized capacity without bridge evidence.

Quantitative ceiling
No cross-state or cross-register total.
Causal ceiling
No delay, success or failure attribution without a documented mechanism.

04 · Failure modes

Why the chain can stop, change or reverse.

Rival explanations become material when they alter the meaning of a prior event or block the bridge to the next state.

01

Permission without service

Land and local approvals can be real while the selected service pathway remains unresolved.

02

Contract without delivery

An executed obligation can define terms without establishing energization, average load or installed compute.

03

Construction without full scope

A visible build can support a phase claim while the announced campus total remains unverified.

04

Operation without economic observation

An operating disclosure does not automatically establish contracted use, utilization, revenue or C20.

Rival evidence that narrows the conversion claim

CTR-0059 · Contract architecture is not physical delivery

A revised front-of-the-meter PPA may adapt the arrangement without proving delivered or consumed load.

Evidence result:Talen discloses up to 1,920 MW and a transition date, but no campus energization, average load or utilization.

Ceiling effect:C10 maximum.

CTR-0061 · Demand-quality problem / non-power bottlenecks

Construction or company-asserted operation does not prove measured utilization or sustained economic capacity.

Evidence result:Abilene and Mount Pleasant records stop at C17 assertion and C12 construction respectively, without C18–C20 evidence.

Ceiling effect:C20 prohibited.

CTR-0065 · Flexible-load response

Conditional non-firm service can create an earlier pathway, but it may expose load to curtailment and does not establish participation or outcome.

Evidence result:FERC accepted voluntary CHILLS as conditional/as-available service subject to compliance.

Ceiling effect:C9 pathway only.

05 · Claim register

What the archive permits this guide to say.

Each claim retains its ceiling, evidence class, exact locator and Linked sources.

CLM-0005 · interpretation

Announced, requested, approved, contracted, deliverable, energized, installed, utilized, and economically productive capacity are non-equivalent states and units.

Claim ceiling
No conversion without an explicit method and evidence.
Evidence
CONTROLLING/BOUNDING INPUT · HIGH
Locator
Operating Prompt §7; Seed Charter §6
Linked sources
SRC-0001internal recordSRC-0002internal record

CLM-0015 · interpretation

The ER24-2172 order demonstrates that an interconnection-service-agreement amendment and a stated behind-meter load allowance are contractual/regulatory states, not proof of energization, commissioned IT capacity, or economic use.

Claim ceiling
Maximum state ceiling C10 absent later public evidence.
Evidence
Tier A + CONTROLLING INPUT · HIGH
Locator
SRC-0008 pp. 5–7; Operating Prompt §7
Linked sources
SRC-0008SRC-0001internal record

CLM-0204 · implementation

Microsoft Mount Pleasant provides C12 construction evidence but no public C14–C20 bridge; phased construction is a supply-response mechanism, not operating-capacity proof.

Claim ceiling
No energized MW, commissioning, installed IT, utilization or C20.
Evidence
Tier A-minus · MEDIUM-HIGH C12
Locator
March/April 2026 construction updates and municipal project page
Linked sources
SRC-0068SRC-0129

CLM-0206 · interpretation

No selected case reaches public C20 sustained economic compute capacity at cutoff.

Claim ceiling
Absence of public C20 proof is not proof that no private economic capacity exists.
Evidence
Tier A · HIGH
Locator
Case reachability profiles and named project disclosures

CLM-0208 · outcome

Conditional service, phased construction, tariff security and contractual restructuring are documented adaptations, but their observed effects on schedule, utilization, rates and economic output remain mostly unproven.

Claim ceiling
Do not treat adaptation availability as proof that the underlying bottleneck is solved.
Evidence
Tier A · HIGH mechanisms / LOW outcomes
Locator
CHILLS order; Mount Pleasant update; GS-5 fact sheet; Talen 10-Q

Public-record gaps

NEG-0006

Question checked:Is there a standardized national public record for commissioning and utilization?

UNKNOWN — PUBLIC EVIDENCE NOT LOCATED.

Implication:Require project-specific C15–C20 evidence.

NEG-0014

Question checked:Is public measured operating MW available for the four bounded C17 project records?

UNKNOWN — PUBLIC EVIDENCE NOT LOCATED. Operating states are disclosed, but common measured average/peak operating load is not.

Implication:No aggregate operating MW; unknown must not be recorded as zero.

NF-0059

Question checked:Is named-site C20 sustained economic compute capacity established?

UNKNOWN — PUBLIC EVIDENCE NOT LOCATED

Implication:C20 remains prohibited.

06 · Maintenance

Evidence that can change this guide.

The model is stable; the status of individual records changes only when a controlling event or observation is documented.

Evidence that could change this guide

  • OIR-0012 · New public evidence changes equipment lead-time, delivery, construction, energization, or commissioning status.

    Required update: Record source vintage, item, order/delivery/install/test state, and non-comparability.

  • OIR-0019 · Any bounded project receives a material cancellation, downsizing, land/permit decision, construction milestone, service agreement, energization, commissioning, phase redefinition, or portfolio-capacity reconciliation.

    Required update: Create dated state observation; preserve prior state; record supersession/overlap; update affected capacity fields without borrowing later-state language.

  • OIR-0020 · Public evidence provides measured operating load, commissioned IT capacity, customer-use, utilization, revenue/economic incidence, or independent verification for a C17 project.

    Required update: Verify unit, period, site boundary and source function; upgrade only the supported state; preserve contrary evidence and C18–C20 distinctions.

  • OIR-0049 · Comparable public utilization, average-load or C20 evidence becomes available for CoreWeave, Equinix xScale or a named operating AI cluster.

    Required update: Normalize meter boundary, time period, denominator, AI share and economic measure before state upgrade.

  • OIR-0056 · New cross-case evidence materially changes a rival win or adaptation outcome.

    Required update: Update only affected case and preserve mechanism/outcome distinction.

Record navigation

These records share claims or sources with this report. The linkage supports navigation, not a causal inference.

Bibliography and exact locators

  1. SRC-0001 — AI Compute Infrastructure — autonomous research operating prompt

    Operator-supplied controlling input · 2026-06-18 · CONTROLLING INPUT

    Locator: Full file; sections 0–14

    OPERATOR-SUPPLIED PROGRAM INPUT

  2. SRC-0002 — AI Compute Infrastructure — research seed charter

    Operator-supplied bounded brief · 2026-06-18 · BOUNDING INPUT

    Locator: Full file; sections 1–14

    OPERATOR-SUPPLIED PROGRAM INPUT

  3. SRC-0008 — Order Rejecting Amended Interconnection Service Agreement, Susquehanna Nuclear, LLC et al.

    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · 2024-11-01 · Tier A

    Locator: 189 FERC ¶ 61,078; pp. 5–7; paras. 6–11; ordering paragraphs

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  4. SRC-0068 — Mount Pleasant datacenter project update

    Microsoft · 2026-04-09 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: March 2026 update: Phase 1 nearing completion; Phase 2 construction; Phase 3 earthwork

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  5. SRC-0129 — Stack PDX air permit enforcement final order

    Oregon Department of Environmental Quality · 2025-01-09 · Tier A

    Locator: Final order pp. 1–2

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  6. SRC-0161 — Talen Energy Corporation — Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for quarter ended March 31, 2026

    Talen Energy Corporation · 2026-05-05 · Tier A

    Locator: Glossary lines 2053–2056; revised AWS PPA up to 1,920 MW through 2042; transition in April 2026

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  7. SRC-0066 — Crusoe Announces Flagship Abilene Data Center is Live

    Crusoe · 2025-09-30 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: Construction began June 2024; first two buildings energized; first racks June 2025; early training and inference workloads running

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  8. SRC-0120 — Digital Gateway rezoning appeals opinion

    Court of Appeals of Virginia · 2026-03-31 · Tier A

    Locator: Opinion pp. 4–5 and 52–53; records identified in Pass 05

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  9. SRC-0165 — Order Accepting Tariff Revisions, Subject to Condition — Conditional High Impact Large Load Service

    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission · 2026-06-05 · Tier A

    Locator: 195 FERC ¶ 61,196; paras. 6–7, 104–105; ordering paras. A–B; effective July 1, 2026

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  10. SRC-0114 — SCC Data Center Initiatives — Facts and Figures

    Virginia State Corporation Commission · 2026-02 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: pp. 1-2: 14-year obligation, 85% T&D minimum, up to 60% collateral, alternative cost-allocation filings

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  11. SRC-0067 — Crusoe Expands AI Data Center Campus in Abilene to 1.2 Gigawatts

    Crusoe · 2025-03-18 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: 1.2 GW total campus design; initial two-building phase; six additional buildings under construction

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  12. SRC-0023 — 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory / U.S. Department of Energy · 2024-12-19 · Tier A

    Locator: Executive Summary pp. 5–7; Figure 5.5 pp. 52–53; methods and limitations

    PUBLIC OFFICIAL RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  13. SRC-0028 — Large Load Literature Review Data Sources

    Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory · 2026-03-01 · Tier B

    Locator: Source inventory and definitions

    PUBLIC NATIONAL-LAB/TECHNICAL RECORD

  14. SRC-0071 — Meta’s Kansas City Data Center is now operational

    Meta · 2025-08-01 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: Company statement that facility is operational and serving traffic

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  15. SRC-0072 — Colossus

    xAI · UNSTATED — CURRENT PAGE AT RETRIEVAL · Tier A-minus

    Locator: Company statement: 200,000 NVIDIA H100 GPUs in a single interconnected cluster

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  16. SRC-0076 — Google announces new investment in Jackson County, Alabama data center

    Google · 2026-06-15 · Tier A-minus

    Locator: Existing campus operating since 2019; $1.5 billion expansion announced for 2026–2027

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE

  17. SRC-0155 — CoreWeave, Inc. — Annual Report on Form 10-K for year ended December 31, 2025

    CoreWeave, Inc. · 2026-02-27 · Tier A

    Locator: Lines 330–351; 3001–3041; active and contracted power, RPO, take-or-pay contracts, concentration and financing

    PUBLIC COMPANY/SEC RECORD — CITE/SUMMARIZE